Weeks 3 and 4

Missed week 3 -- even more surprising considering I won the week with 13; I also want to point out James's stretch having won two of the last three weeks and his week 3 performance of 12 correct picks was the second highest total of the season. Even with his only getting gone pick in for week 1 he's in the middle of the pack.

Last week was a good bit harder. Home Dogs were 2-2. The double digit favored Cowboys not only failed to cover but lost the game, at home.

Week 4 did confirm a few things: Yes the Rams are that bad. Yes the Denver D is suspect. Yes, Al Davis is an asshole.

Now we're in one of the best months of the year for Sports fans. Lots of baseball -- I'm sure the Boston fans in the crowd are tired from the late night West Coast games, football settling into routine and the European Soccer Season for both League competition and the Championships League well underway. That autumn chill is in the air, leaves are changing colors. Enjoy it.

I thought the Cubbies would went until the LCS before torturing their fans this year, but they seem determined to end things early this playoff season.

Would a Joe Torre led Dodgers against the Red Sox World Series make Yankee fans long to have their old skipper back? Can the Rays crash the party? Can Philly finally win a championship in something other that Arena Football?


Lock of the Week righted the ship with the Titans defeating the Texans (back in Week 4). This week we'll go with: the Ravens getting 3.5 at home against the aforementioned Titans. though the Pats giving 3.5 at SF is pretty appetizing as well.

Make it a good week.

Week 2

Congrats to James whose 11 win performance wins him the week -- you may not have noticed because he's in the cellar overall, a result of getting his entry in only after most of the games had been played. Still that's the kind of spirit we like, overcoming obstacles on vacation to get your picks in. And he was rewarded with the weeks high score.

There's a four way tie for the overall lead after two weeks.

The Packers were the real Lock of the Week as they were selected by all of us on their way to covering against the still hapless Lions. They'll face a tougher task at home, entertaining the Cowboys on the (not-so) Frozen Tundra Sunday Night. Always tough to travel after playing Monday night. And the Pack are the week's only home dog. I'm just saying.

And apparently all of you were laughing at me and my pick of the Rams, as I apparently missed the memo that in fact the Rams really are that bad. While the Browns ability to keep it close in an ugly Sunday night game against the Steelers caught all of us except Chris -- who actually lived in the Steel City - by surprise.

And there's still time to hop on the Bills Bandwagon -- but time is running out as Trent Edwards is being proclaimed a big time quarterback.

This week both of last year's Super Bowl teams are favored by double digits at home. Can the new look Pats beat a team by 13? I know it's the Dolphins, but still -- did they look that good last week?

Lock of the Week hates to pile on the Texans in the wake of Hurricane Ike -- but we'll take the town's former residents, the Titans over the Houston denizens this week.

Get those picks in and make it a good week.

Jono

2008 Season

Welcome to another year of the Pigskin Pick'em blog. The Football season seemed to sneak up on me and so I didn't get a chance to make any preseason predictions. Good thing for all of us as none of them would have been correct anyways.

Lots of teams had hopes of making the playoffs for the first time in a while like the Bills and Vikings; others believed they'd be back in the playoffs after a down year like the Jets and Eagles; some thought this was the year they'd win a playoff game -- I'm looking at you Dallas; some had expectations of a championship, New England.

After one week some of those predictions look quite good, others not so much.

Was Week One a changing of the guard as San Diego and Indy lost at home?

Was it the dawn of a new generation of quarterbacks as Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler had excellent games?

Or was it just one week? A blip on the season forgotten a few weeks from now when things have returned to their natural order? We shall see.

One think is for certain, the Tom Brady injury changes the complexion of the entire season in a way that no other event could have. Many more teams can hope not just of getting to the Playoffs but bringing the Lombardi trophy home as the Patriots go from a prohibitive favorite to another team with a suspect quarterback. The Jets are now a 2.5 favorite at home. All because of Brady. Now Giselle has to rearrange her weekends to deal with her brooding, injured boyfriend instead of going shopping while he was at the stadium.

Seeming to enjoy the distraction from his impending nuptials, Flood finds himself in the top 1% of all entries with his 12 win week.

HomeDogs -- one of our favorite trends were only 2-4 last week.

Some things to remember:

No one ever went broke betting against the Lions on the road. Especially when they are favored.
Double Digit spreads are tough to beat.

Tough to find a Lock of the Week this week. The HomeDogs all look like Dogs for a reason. Do I really want to bet on the Rams?

Still +8.5 at home is appealing against a Giants team that looked good and bad in Week 1. Well, I'll take the Rams without a lot of conviction, and add that I like the Panthers and Broncos for what it is worth. If you've been reading this over the years, you're smart enough not to listen to me anyways.

Make it a good week. And Tell people they can still join if they are interested in doing so.

Championship Week

For my money (admittedly that is not saying much), this is the best football weekend of the year and one of the top sports days of the year (along with Day 1 of the NCAAs and the first Monday in April -- Baseball's Opening Day and the NCAA Final).

This year we get two very interesting games, if not the ones we thought we'd get and that we really wanted (as my 1-3 record against the spread and 2-2 on winners indicates). Still we get the "Greatest Offense of All-Time" against a resurgent Chargers team with some dominant playmakers themselves, including the best guy in the league at their position in LT and Gates -- admittedly a bit banged up; And then we get Brett Favre, on what will literally be "The Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field" against the Giants, Eli (who now has the same .500 winning percentage as his brother -- although admittedly not his fancy ring -- )and the New Yorkers vaunted pass rush. It should at least be fun.

A few questions:

Is Atlanta so screwed up that USC or being the Cowboys coordinator looks better then being the Head Coach there?

At what point do we have to look at last year's Championship as the anomaly for the Colts and Peyton rather then their legacy of premature playoff exits? Or, is it just that 'winning football games is hard"?

Dallas has not won a playoff game in 11 years -- that seems incredible to me, even the Redskins have won two post-season games in that span. (Not the Bills though) - yes, that is not a question.

This week we will take the favored home teams to win (did you really think I was going to go against the Packers inexorable playoff run now??)

Against the spread though, things are more difficult. The Pats have beat the spread only once (against the Steelers) since their thrashing of Buffalo. This week the line is 14 -- seems like a lot in the winter against the resurgent Chargers (even if Norv Turner is coach them). We'll go with the trend and take the points.

We will however take the Pack and give the 7.5 over the Giants.

Enjoy this Sunday -- after that there is only one more game, plus the rest of the Dillon Panthers season on 'Friday Night Lights'

Jono

Only 7 Games Left

in the 2007 NFL Season. This week is the Divisional Round when well rested favorites get to host underdogs all played tough games last week. TMQ (on Espn.com) reports that home teams have a .779 winning percentage on this weekend, far beyond what home teams normally do and pointing to the benefits of a week off. Vegas agrees, as all four home teams are a better then 7 point favorite this weekend.

I will follow up my top weekend in the Wild Card round (4-0 against the spread, 3-1 for winners with the Steelers beating the 3 point spread but losing at home because of their reluctance to take one point instead of going for two from the 12 yard line) by taking all of the home teams this weekend to win and beat the spread. The narrowest spread is Seattle at Lambeau field, but as you know by now, I expect the Packers inexorable run to the Super Bowl to continue. Your own upset predictions are welcome below.

I am especially proud of taking the Giants who Footballoutsiders.com called the least likely road team to win -- but Good Eli showed up and the Giants advance

Also, a quick congratulations to Jeff Doctoroff who squeaked out a one point victory over yours truly in the College Bowl Pickem. Tulsa left little doubt, beating Bowling Green by more then 50 to decide the contest. Jeff, Flood and I all went 20-12 for the competition.

And a follow-up on Norm's Pigskin Championship -- his success rate was 51.5% for the season, meaning if he was gambling for real he would be down for the year based on the juice the bookie collects, so all of you, stick to your day job.

Make it a good week

NORM!!!

Norm's eight win week makes him the overall winner for the 2007 season. His 5 win margin of victory strikes me as the largest margin we have seen here, certainly for the last few years. Congratulations -- it is probably the best sports-related performance in Atlanta for 2007.

Jeff won the final week with 11 picks to move into a tie with me, and he missed a week earlier in the year, thus my year of fantasy football futility continues. All I have left is the College Bowl Madness -- and I need a Bowling Green victory over the Tulsa Golden Hurricane to hold off Jeff for the victory.

As an aside -- is it me or are there just too many BCS games and they are too spread out. Can we watch BCS games for three consecutive nights, then take a night off, and watch five more games (4 NFL Playoffs plus the BCS championship??) Isn't that a bit excessive -- especially when we are talking about compelling matchups like VaTech-Kansas or Oklahoma-West VA. Really who cares?

On top of that, if LSU wins we will have a national champion with more losses then a team from a major conference, which won its BCS game (Kansas). Give me a playoff -- please!


I also have the Green Bay Packers -- my preseason Super Bowl Pick. Now the road looks tough -- NFC Championship game in Dallas (where Favre has never won) then the Juggernaut, the Greatest Team to ever Strap on a Helmet the 2007 NE Patriots. But I will stick with my pick. Who would the football Gods more likely reward then Favre -- by giving him the greatest Super Bowl, nay football, nay sports upset ever (with apologies to Joe Namath). Their inexorable run to the playoffs takes a week off.

For this week, we recall that one visiting team always wins on the first weekend. All four road teams seem able to pull the upset, with the Jags actually favored on the road (when was the last time the Steelers were a home dog in the playoffs?). But I'll take the Steelers, along with the Seahawks and the Chargers to win and beat the spread. Which means I'm taking the Giants on the road - yes that means betting on Eli but he's more comfortable away from the Meadowlands anyway and the Giants are better (unless they decide that their 'moral victory' against the Pats last week was the playoffs for them).

Thanks for a great year and enjoy the Playoffs - there are only 11 more pro football games left.

Jono

Christmas Wishes

The move to Martinsville seems to have worked out well for PJs fantasy picks as he wins his third week in a row, this week sharing the honors with Norm, and holding a one game lead in the overall standings with two weeks to go. Once again he spotted the field the Thursday night game (I have to confess I forgot all about it until I saw the score on my homepage the following day).

Somehow we all knew what Vegas didn't, that the Jags are a pretty good team and their win (as a 4.5 dog) at Pittsburgh has to give them a good shot of confidence going into the playoffs. The Steelers, meanwhile, find themselves needing to win their final two games or a win and a Cleveland loss to take the AFC North crown and avoid going on the road for the playoffs (where they are 2-4 this season) as they have the same record (but hold the tiebreaker) with the resurgent Browns.

We all missed the Raiders only losing by 7 -- I don't think Peyton cares and the Colts are 12-2 , a tremendous record in any season, but completely overshadowed by the Pats this year.

Seattle also managed to stub their toe, giving the Panthers their first win at home since Nancy Pelosi became Speaker of the House of Representatives.

I somehow went against my Cinderella teams, taking the 10.5 points and the Rams against the Packers; the Packers reminded me why I love them so, wiping out the Rams in the Second half and moving back into a tie for the best record in the NFC and potential home field advantage if they can win out and Dallas loses another game -- a huge advantage for Favre to play at Lambeau instead of Texas Stadium where he is (cue chorus) 0-8 lifetime.

In Atlanta, meanwhile, no one want to take Arthur Blank's money as Bill Cowher and Bill Parcells both turned down offers from the Home Depot magnate to try and turn that franchise around. They are fast becoming the Baltimore Orioles of the NFL.


We have gotten our hands on some Christmas lists and so we share them with you now:
Bobby Petrino -- A Soul
Eli Manning -- to play only road games
Rest of the League -- for Giselle to start going to Pats games and have the same impact on Tom Brady that Jessica Simpson had on Tony Romo. An by the way did last weekend screw up more fantasy football leagues then any other single weekend. Romo, Brady, and Cleveland's Derek Anderson, each of whom had carried their teams to the Fantasy Semis scored a combined 11 Points (Brady and Romo 3 pts each, Anderson 5 in the Snow in Cleveland). Yet one more reason why Fantasy baseball is much truer then Fantasy Football.
Joe Gibbs - one fewer timeout
Jamie Lynne Spears -- A Condom (this has got to be my favorite celebrity story of the year, Britney's sister getting knocked up -- at 16). It was nice of her to take some of the Paparazzi and Tabloid pressure off her sister for a while -- and say what you want but those Spears girls sure are fertile.
FSU -- some better academic tutors
Michael Vick -- Some real friends
Roger Clemens -- fear of needles.
The Lions -- to end the Season in October (when they were 6-2 before losing 6 straight)
College Football -- A Playoff system. Speaking of the College Bowl Season, make sure you sign up for College Bowl Mania. Password is spiders.


Trends -- Home Dogs were 4-2 last weekend, as even the 49ers managed to win outright at home, as did the Panthers.

Lock of the Week is 0n a three game roll, as the Saints took care of the Cards in the Big Easy last week. Lots of big spreads this week, And it's Christmas so maybe this pick is more with my heart, but I'm taking Coach Gibbs, the Skins and 7.5 over the Vikings. The Vikings are good and on a hot streak, but the Metrodome is like a second home to Gibbs. He won his Third Super Bowl there, after the 1991 season and it was also the site of Gibbs' last playoff victory in his first go-round with the 'Skins a 24-7 upset over the Vikings after the 1992 season and his last win before retiring. We'll be watching Gibbs try to find some more of that Metrodome magic on Sunday night.

Make it a good week and a Merry Christmas if you celebrate and enjoy some Chinese food if you don't.

Jono