Championship Week

For my money (admittedly that is not saying much), this is the best football weekend of the year and one of the top sports days of the year (along with Day 1 of the NCAAs and the first Monday in April -- Baseball's Opening Day and the NCAA Final).

This year we get two very interesting games, if not the ones we thought we'd get and that we really wanted (as my 1-3 record against the spread and 2-2 on winners indicates). Still we get the "Greatest Offense of All-Time" against a resurgent Chargers team with some dominant playmakers themselves, including the best guy in the league at their position in LT and Gates -- admittedly a bit banged up; And then we get Brett Favre, on what will literally be "The Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field" against the Giants, Eli (who now has the same .500 winning percentage as his brother -- although admittedly not his fancy ring -- )and the New Yorkers vaunted pass rush. It should at least be fun.

A few questions:

Is Atlanta so screwed up that USC or being the Cowboys coordinator looks better then being the Head Coach there?

At what point do we have to look at last year's Championship as the anomaly for the Colts and Peyton rather then their legacy of premature playoff exits? Or, is it just that 'winning football games is hard"?

Dallas has not won a playoff game in 11 years -- that seems incredible to me, even the Redskins have won two post-season games in that span. (Not the Bills though) - yes, that is not a question.

This week we will take the favored home teams to win (did you really think I was going to go against the Packers inexorable playoff run now??)

Against the spread though, things are more difficult. The Pats have beat the spread only once (against the Steelers) since their thrashing of Buffalo. This week the line is 14 -- seems like a lot in the winter against the resurgent Chargers (even if Norv Turner is coach them). We'll go with the trend and take the points.

We will however take the Pack and give the 7.5 over the Giants.

Enjoy this Sunday -- after that there is only one more game, plus the rest of the Dillon Panthers season on 'Friday Night Lights'

Jono

Only 7 Games Left

in the 2007 NFL Season. This week is the Divisional Round when well rested favorites get to host underdogs all played tough games last week. TMQ (on Espn.com) reports that home teams have a .779 winning percentage on this weekend, far beyond what home teams normally do and pointing to the benefits of a week off. Vegas agrees, as all four home teams are a better then 7 point favorite this weekend.

I will follow up my top weekend in the Wild Card round (4-0 against the spread, 3-1 for winners with the Steelers beating the 3 point spread but losing at home because of their reluctance to take one point instead of going for two from the 12 yard line) by taking all of the home teams this weekend to win and beat the spread. The narrowest spread is Seattle at Lambeau field, but as you know by now, I expect the Packers inexorable run to the Super Bowl to continue. Your own upset predictions are welcome below.

I am especially proud of taking the Giants who Footballoutsiders.com called the least likely road team to win -- but Good Eli showed up and the Giants advance

Also, a quick congratulations to Jeff Doctoroff who squeaked out a one point victory over yours truly in the College Bowl Pickem. Tulsa left little doubt, beating Bowling Green by more then 50 to decide the contest. Jeff, Flood and I all went 20-12 for the competition.

And a follow-up on Norm's Pigskin Championship -- his success rate was 51.5% for the season, meaning if he was gambling for real he would be down for the year based on the juice the bookie collects, so all of you, stick to your day job.

Make it a good week

NORM!!!

Norm's eight win week makes him the overall winner for the 2007 season. His 5 win margin of victory strikes me as the largest margin we have seen here, certainly for the last few years. Congratulations -- it is probably the best sports-related performance in Atlanta for 2007.

Jeff won the final week with 11 picks to move into a tie with me, and he missed a week earlier in the year, thus my year of fantasy football futility continues. All I have left is the College Bowl Madness -- and I need a Bowling Green victory over the Tulsa Golden Hurricane to hold off Jeff for the victory.

As an aside -- is it me or are there just too many BCS games and they are too spread out. Can we watch BCS games for three consecutive nights, then take a night off, and watch five more games (4 NFL Playoffs plus the BCS championship??) Isn't that a bit excessive -- especially when we are talking about compelling matchups like VaTech-Kansas or Oklahoma-West VA. Really who cares?

On top of that, if LSU wins we will have a national champion with more losses then a team from a major conference, which won its BCS game (Kansas). Give me a playoff -- please!


I also have the Green Bay Packers -- my preseason Super Bowl Pick. Now the road looks tough -- NFC Championship game in Dallas (where Favre has never won) then the Juggernaut, the Greatest Team to ever Strap on a Helmet the 2007 NE Patriots. But I will stick with my pick. Who would the football Gods more likely reward then Favre -- by giving him the greatest Super Bowl, nay football, nay sports upset ever (with apologies to Joe Namath). Their inexorable run to the playoffs takes a week off.

For this week, we recall that one visiting team always wins on the first weekend. All four road teams seem able to pull the upset, with the Jags actually favored on the road (when was the last time the Steelers were a home dog in the playoffs?). But I'll take the Steelers, along with the Seahawks and the Chargers to win and beat the spread. Which means I'm taking the Giants on the road - yes that means betting on Eli but he's more comfortable away from the Meadowlands anyway and the Giants are better (unless they decide that their 'moral victory' against the Pats last week was the playoffs for them).

Thanks for a great year and enjoy the Playoffs - there are only 11 more pro football games left.

Jono